How About a Side Order of Complexity with Your Uncertainty? It's on the House
We know the problem … uncertainty and complexity creates major difficulties and is a problem for decision-makers. The current mortgage problem, Bear Stearns, global terrorism and all the "unprecedented" events of the last several months are gleaming examples of the uncertainty associated with uncertainty. By now this is old news and obvious. The problems with predictions, probabilities, models, best practices, rigid processes, induction and all other accepted and established ways of decision-making are massively flawed. The strange thing is that we continue to rely on these methods to make decisions, knowing they are extraordinarily unsound. It seems that we have reached an intellectual understanding, or conceptualization, of uncertainty but still employ old tools and irrelevant constructs when thinking about and deciding on the future.
When making a decision that involves complexity and uncertainty, it is easy to depend on experience and accomplishment. If a fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) company is looking to hire a brand manager, the standard action is look for a brand manager working in the FMCG industry. It is safe, makes sense, categorical, easy to explain and the job description is readily available, just copy and paste from the web. This way of thinking appears to work well most of the time. In fact, it has worked so well that everyone does it. If everyone can do something well, then that something is distinctly uncompetitive.
Most employers nowadays state that their competitive edge in an information and service economy requires "having the best and brightest people". However, if a company's process of vetting and organizing its competitive advantage (the best and brightest) is identical to the competition, then we could hardly call that competitive or an advantage. Having to rely on the same experiences and accomplishments for success as your competitors is an invitation for compounded uncertainty. It reduces the diversity of problem solving resources and diminishes innovation by narrowing the pool of ideas to what has worked in the past.
Experience and accomplishment are necessary, from a practical and emotional point of view. I prefer my doctor to have experience and recorded accomplishment. The same goes for my lawyer and accountant. Experience and accomplishment are most relevant when dealing with specific, definable skills. Unfortunately our world is not compartmentalized enough to rely only on specific skills for success. Competitiveness and successful innovation originate from recognizing asymmetry and being flexible enough to monetize the opportunity.
I propose we shift the focus from experience and accomplishment to motivation and curiosity. Over the next few entries, I will expand on this subject and concentrate on usable actions that respect uncertainty and complexity.
Originally published April 1, 2008